Iraq-- Managed Partition?
There is no avoiding the fact that Iraq is headed for worse bloodshed in the future which will likely result in either a Shi'a theocracy, or a resurgent Sunni dictatorship, or partition—not exactly what we the people had in mind. Not much is ever certain in Iraq, but one thing is: democracy will not rise like a phoenix from the ashes anytime soon.
The original plan, in which there was to be a "short-term occupation" with an attempt to establish a functioning democratic system, was doomed from the start. It would never work because the political/sectarian divisions within Iraq would prevent it-- the Sunnis because they fear the Shi'a majority, the Shi'a because they don't believe in democracy, and the Kurds because they want their own autonomous state.
Without a doubt the Bush Administration was aware of such obstacles, they knew the history of the region. Surely Bush was advised by some that leaving Saddam in power was the best way to further American interests since we had the weakened dictator under our thumb. Yet Bush chose to ignore the lessons of history (and reality) opting instead to follow the advice of the Dick Cheney and the neoconservatives. Their motive was shady, their strategy was flawed, their army was too small, and their post war planning was shoddy. As a result the situation in Iraq is dire, our stature worldwide is damaged, and Bush has a 26 % approval rating today. Old news.
The new counterinsurgency strategy of General Patraeus is a long-term occupation (a minimum of ten years). If given time, it could produce better prospects for democracy, but such an occupation will be violently opposed, to the end, by dissident elements inside Iraq. The real question: how long will Americans put up with the cost in blood and treasure before pulling out? Last year’s elections and current polls demonstrate clearly that patience is wearing thin with the war. Therefore the new strategy is also doomed in its infancy.
The carving up of Iraq through managed partition may become a more realistic possibility soon, especially since the US is looking for a shorter-term solution that might mitigate bloodshed and cross-border spillover. The idea here is to give autonomy to the Kurds in the north, which in many ways they’ve already had since the no-fly zone was established after the first Gulf War, and to give the rest of the country to the Sunnis and the Shi'a to divide up. The Shi'a would get southern portion in a kind of "state of Basra, the Sunnis would get the western portion of the country and a mixed Sunni/Shi'a state of Baghdad would occupy the center.
There are huge obstacles to this type of partition: the unequal distribution of oil resources across the zones, the final status of the disputed northern cities of Kirkuk and Mosul, the opposition of Turkey to the idea of a Kurdish state on its border, and the real sense of international failure should Iraq dissolve as a nation. Overcoming these giant hurdles is a daunting proposition, nevertheless more and more commentators are talking about such a solution. Is it time to accept the inevitability of partition?
Listen to a podcast of award-winning writers Rajiv Chandrasekaran and Ghaith Abdul-Ahad discussing possible ways forward for Iraq:
Podcast: audio_rajiv_chandrasekaran
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From the Iraq wayback machine:
The Vote for the Iraq WarU.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 107th Congress - 2nd Session
as compiled through Senate LIS by the Senate Bill Clerk under the direction of the Secretary of the Senate
| Question: On the Joint Resolution (H.J.Res. 114 ) | |||
| Vote Number: | 237 | Vote Date: | October 11, 2002, 12:50 AM |
| Required For Majority: | 1/2 | Vote Result: | Joint Resolution Passed |
| Measure Number: | |||
| Measure Title: | A joint resolution to authorize the use of United States Armed Forces against Iraq. | ||
| YEAs ---77 | ||
| Allard (R-CO) | Edwards (D-NC) | McCain (R-AZ) |
| NAYs ---23 | ||
| Akaka (D-HI) | Durbin (D-IL) | Mikulski (D-MD) |
Arrogance of Power
Today, I Weep for my Country...
by US Senator Robert Byrd
Speech delivered on the floor of the US Senate
March 19, 2003 3:45pm
But, today I weep for my country. I have watched the events of recent months with a heavy, heavy heart. No more is the image of America one of strong, yet benevolent peacekeeper. The image of America has changed. Around the globe, our friends mistrust us, our word is disputed, our intentions are questioned.
Instead of reasoning with those with whom we disagree, we demand obedience or threaten recrimination. Instead of isolating Saddam Hussein, we seem to have isolated ourselves. We proclaim a new doctrine of preemption which is understood by few and feared by many. We say that the United States has the right to turn its firepower on any corner of the globe which might be suspect in the war on terrorism. We assert that right without the sanction of any international body. As a result, the world has become a much more dangerous place.
We flaunt our superpower status with arrogance. We treat UN Security Council members like ingrates who offend our princely dignity by lifting their heads from the carpet. Valuable alliances are split.
After war has ended, the United States will have to rebuild much more than the country of Iraq. We will have to rebuild America's image around the globe.
The case this Administration tries to make to justify its fixation with war is tainted by charges of falsified documents and circumstantial evidence. We cannot convince the world of the necessity of this war for one simple reason. This is a war of choice.
There is no credible information to connect Saddam Hussein to 9/11. The twin towers fell because a world-wide terrorist group, Al Qaeda, with cells in over 60 nations, struck at our wealth and our influence by turning our own planes into missiles, one of which would likely have slammed into the dome of this beautiful Capitol except for the brave sacrifice of the passengers on board.
The brutality seen on September 11th and in other terrorist attacks we have witnessed around the globe are the violent and desperate efforts by extremists to stop the daily encroachment of western values upon their cultures. That is what we fight. It is a force not confined to borders. It is a shadowy entity with many faces, many names, and many addresses.
But, this Administration has directed all of the anger, fear, and grief which emerged from the ashes of the twin towers and the twisted metal of the Pentagon towards a tangible villain, one we can see and hate and attack. And villain he is. But, he is the wrong villain. And this is the wrong war. If we attack Saddam Hussein, we will probably drive him from power. But, the zeal of our friends to assist our global war on terrorism may have already taken flight.
The general unease surrounding this war is not just due to "orange alert." There is a pervasive sense of rush and risk and too many questions unanswered. How long will we be in Iraq? What will be the cost? What is the ultimate mission? How great is the danger at home?
A pall has fallen over the Senate Chamber. We avoid our solemn duty to debate the one topic on the minds of all Americans, even while scores of thousands of our sons and daughters faithfully do their duty in Iraq.
What is happening to this country? When did we become a nation which ignores and berates our friends? When did we decide to risk undermining international order by adopting a radical and doctrinaire approach to using our awesome military might? How can we abandon diplomatic efforts when the turmoil in the world cries out for diplomacy?
Why can this President not seem to see that America's true power lies not in its will to intimidate, but in its ability to inspire?
War appears inevitable. But, I continue to hope that the cloud will lift. Perhaps Saddam will yet turn tail and run. Perhaps reason will somehow still prevail. I along with millions of Americans will pray for the safety of our troops, for the innocent civilians in Iraq, and for the security of our homeland. May God continue to bless the United States of America in the troubled days ahead, and may we somehow recapture the vision which for the present eludes us.
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We will not forget!